Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.286708 2.426561 2.574551 2.743507 2.931919 3.136579 3.377083
2025-03-23 2.100081 2.294295 2.510396 2.771174 3.080802 3.441282 3.899805
2025-03-30 1.945096 2.164951 2.417730 2.734421 3.127411 3.608936 4.260366
2025-04-06 1.826605 2.061627 2.338635 2.695946 3.155308 3.742537 4.580557
2025-04-13 1.716819 1.958057 2.247775 2.629973 3.135239 3.803774 4.801746
2025-04-20 1.665782 1.920973 2.233650 2.656338 3.232733 4.025953 5.274871
2025-04-27 1.630942 1.900524 2.237192 2.703221 3.358563 4.297344 5.861610
2025-05-04 1.598722 1.880582 2.238738 2.745486 3.479096 4.571804 6.500216
2025-05-11 1.545634 1.830476 2.196990 2.723974 3.503643 4.700235 6.910855
2025-05-18 1.498995 1.786289 2.160260 2.706094 3.530454 4.832798 7.351470
2025-05-25 1.454503 1.742778 2.121893 2.682721 3.545721 4.946190 7.775948
2025-06-01 1.413022 1.701451 2.084309 2.657681 3.555412 5.049624 8.200466
2025-06-08 1.379751 1.670507 2.060468 2.652614 3.598245 5.219237 8.817479
2025-06-15 1.359623 1.656551 2.059592 2.681593 3.698531 5.505397 9.786300
2025-06-22 1.321211 1.615923 2.018892 2.647015 3.689140 5.583560 10.269938
2025-06-29 1.284699 1.576669 1.978521 2.610586 3.673425 5.646971 10.735253
2025-07-06 1.242576 1.528316 1.923249 2.548052 3.607861 5.603402 10.893582
2025-07-13 1.228275 1.518449 1.923469 2.573050 3.697926 5.888592 12.115176
2025-07-20 1.220209 1.516947 1.935644 2.617480 3.826218 6.274279 13.854651
2025-07-27 1.211265 1.513768 1.944988 2.657510 3.949700 6.671065 15.900328
2025-08-03 1.186960 1.487712 1.918879 2.637138 3.956631 6.799112 16.989819
2025-08-10 1.164722 1.464028 1.895535 2.620202 3.968784 6.941726 18.247832
2025-08-17 1.142219 1.439360 1.869867 2.598056 3.968934 7.054943 19.464297